Model Track Record & Evaluasi AI
Transparansi penuh metrik evaluasi out-of-sample harga realisasi vs harga proyeksi
Total Evaluasi: 0 Sampel
Rata-rata sMAPE Global
196.14%
Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Directional Accuracy
Pending Evaluasi
Akurasi prediksi arah naik/turun
Universe Konstituen Teruji
74 Emiten
75 Regime-Aware R2 + 1 Fallback
Siklus Evaluasi
Harian (End-of-Day)
Dievaluasi otomatis setelah tutup bursa
Metodologi Evaluasi: sMAPE & Direction Accuracy
Mengapa Symmetric MAPE (sMAPE)?
Standar MAPE konvensional seringkali memberikan penalti asimetris yang berlebihan ketika harga saham bernilai rendah. Formula sMAPE yang digunakan:
sMAPE
=
× 100%
2 × |ŷt − yt|
|ŷt| + |yt|
Formula ini memberikan bobot berimbang terhadap prediksi yang over-estimate maupun under-estimate.
ŷt : Estimasi harga prediksi sesi t
yt : Harga penutupan realisasi sesi t
Directional Accuracy
Menghitung persentase kesesuaian tanda arah pergerakan:
Directional Match
=
sign(ŷt − yt−1) == sign(yt − yt−1)
Sangat penting bagi praktisi kuantitatif untuk melihat apakah model mampu menangkap dinamika momentum pasar terlepas dari deviasi harga nominal.
yt−1 : Harga penutupan sesi sebelumnya
sign(·) : Nilai arah (+1 naik, -1 turun, 0 tetap)
Daftar Evaluasi Out-of-Sample Terkini
50 Rekaman Terakhir| Target Tanggal | Saham | Model | Rezim | Harga Realisasi | Harga Prediksi | Error Nominal | sMAPE (%) | Arah Prediksi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ACES
PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 354 | Rp 354 |
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0.00% | Tepat |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ACES
PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Rendah | Rp 354 | Rp 354 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
5.97% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ACES
PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 354 | Rp 354 |
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0.78% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ADMR
PT Adaro Minerals Indonesia Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 1.580 | Rp 1.595 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
94.49% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ADMR
PT Adaro Minerals Indonesia Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Rendah | Rp 1.580 | Rp 1.596 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
99.88% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ADMR
PT Adaro Minerals Indonesia Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 1.580 | Rp 1.596 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
98.23% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ADRO
PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 2.590 | Rp 2.621 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
118.91% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ADRO
PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 2.590 | Rp 2.620 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
115.16% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ADRO
PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Sedang | Rp 2.590 | Rp 2.621 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
119.80% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
AKRA
PT AKR Corporindo Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 1.490 | Rp 1.511 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
137.08% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
AKRA
PT AKR Corporindo Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 1.490 | Rp 1.510 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
133.33% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
AKRA
PT AKR Corporindo Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Sedang | Rp 1.490 | Rp 1.511 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
138.49% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
AMMN
PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 5.050 | Rp 5.100 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
98.52% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
AMMN
PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Sedang | Rp 5.050 | Rp 5.103 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
104.84% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
AMMN
PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 5.050 | Rp 5.100 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
99.30% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
AMRT
PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 1.300 | Rp 1.280 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
151.29% | Tepat |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
AMRT
PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 1.300 | Rp 1.280 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
155.04% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
AMRT
PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Tinggi | Rp 1.300 | Rp 1.281 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
150.28% | Tepat |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ANTM
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 3.270 | Rp 3.191 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
243.93% | Tepat |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ANTM
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 3.270 | Rp 3.190 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
247.68% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ANTM
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Tinggi | Rp 3.270 | Rp 3.191 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
243.47% | Tepat |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ARTO
PT Bank Jago Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 950 | Rp 980 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
310.88% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ARTO
PT Bank Jago Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Tinggi | Rp 950 | Rp 980 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
314.63% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ARTO
PT Bank Jago Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 950 | Rp 980 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
314.62% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ASII
PT Astra International Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Sedang | Rp 4.890 | Rp 4.980 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
181.70% | Tepat |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ASII
PT Astra International Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 4.890 | Rp 4.981 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
184.67% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
ASII
PT Astra International Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 4.890 | Rp 4.980 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
182.37% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BBCA
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 6.400 | Rp 6.502 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
158.78% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BBCA
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 6.400 | Rp 6.500 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
155.04% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BBCA
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Sedang | Rp 6.400 | Rp 6.504 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
160.51% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BBNI
PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 3.750 | Rp 3.870 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
314.96% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BBNI
PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Tinggi | Rp 3.750 | Rp 3.872 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
319.60% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BBNI
PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 3.750 | Rp 3.871 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
318.70% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BBRI
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Sedang | Rp 3.320 | Rp 3.400 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
238.47% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BBRI
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 3.320 | Rp 3.401 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
241.84% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BBRI
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 3.320 | Rp 3.400 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
238.10% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BBTN
PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 1.185 | Rp 1.215 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
250.78% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BBTN
PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 1.185 | Rp 1.215 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
250.00% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BBTN
PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Sedang | Rp 1.185 | Rp 1.214 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
239.83% | Tepat |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BFIN
PT BFI Finance Indonesia Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 980 | Rp 995 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
151.90% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BFIN
PT BFI Finance Indonesia Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Rendah | Rp 980 | Rp 996 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
158.18% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BFIN
PT BFI Finance Indonesia Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 980 | Rp 995 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
155.64% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BMRI
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 4.340 | Rp 4.440 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
227.79% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BMRI
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Sedang | Rp 4.340 | Rp 4.442 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
232.55% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BMRI
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 4.340 | Rp 4.442 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
231.53% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BREN
PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk
|
xgboost | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 3.150 | Rp 3.111 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
124.05% | Tepat |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BREN
PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 3.150 | Rp 3.110 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
127.80% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BREN
PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Tinggi | Rp 3.150 | Rp 3.111 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
125.16% | Tepat |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BRIS
PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk
|
primary | Belum Ditentukan | Rp 1.710 | Rp 1.730 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
116.28% | Meleset |
| 15 Sep 2026 |
BRIS
PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk
|
regime_aware | Volatilitas Sedang | Rp 1.710 | Rp 1.729 |
Warning: Undefined array key "absolute_error" in /home/jele4311/public_html/saham45.id/app/views/performance.php on line 184 - |
109.58% | Tepat |